Why Apple Won't Stay on Top

"Apple, you were the rebels, the underdogs, but now are you becoming The Man." - Jon Stewart

• The Underdog by Spoon

Apple recently ousted Microsoft in market cap as the world's largest tech company, edging ahead with exquisitely designed high-end gadgets and its Apps store money machine.  With its Iron Gates attitude to just about anyone who dares to enter its coveted app shop, the new AppleTV will karmically receive a similar reception by television studios, distributors, and sponsors.

Toss It and Leave It...Google Will Show Up to Retrieve It
Apple notoriously shut out Adobe Flash from the Apps store.  As 75 percent of online video content runs on Flash, many believe this was a Pyrrhic victory.  Now Google hops into bed with Adobe, as its new Android 2.2 will debut with Adobe Flash Player 10.1 compatibility.  Furthermore, NBC and Time Warner are holding their ground, refusing to let go of Flash to deliver their content.

Side tidbit: YouTube, which runs on Flash on your computer, is not Flash based on the iPhone/iPad, but has been re-compressed as H264 video (mp4).

Battle Dance, Go: Apple TV vs Google TV

Correction 6/4/10: Google TV is also a box with a small form factor that fits behind your TV, so the viewer cannot see it. Other than that, it is still just a widget platform.

AppleTV: The TV that isn't.
The fearsome tech giant recently launched Apple TV.  I want to draw attention to the product description on Apple's own website:  Buy the latest commercial-free episode of your favorite show the day after it airs, and then watch it whenever you’re ready. Choose a Season Pass and get a whole season of a TV show automatically. Or get a Multi-Pass for shows that air every day, such as The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, and enjoy a month’s worth of episodes downloaded to Apple TV as they become available. Individual shows cost as little as $1.99. HD versions are $2.99.

1. People want to watch TV when it is on. The fact that you can't watch TV while it airs with Apple TV, such as the evening news, Oprah, and Glee makes this product incomplete.  It brings the web to your TV, just not TV to your TV.
2. Funny you mention Jon Stewart. Jon, who you can watch on cable or for free online, has this to say to Steve:
   

   The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
   Appholes
   www.thedailyshow.com
   Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party

   [Stewart dubs them 'Appholes' in regards to the freak-out over the leak of their new iPhone]
3. If you want to watch the entire last season of American Idol on FOX (a station available on regular TV for free), the day after each episodes airs, when you already were told what happened by then, it will cost you: 43 x $1.99, or $85.57.  In HD the cost is $128.57.

Your cable box is connected to HDMI 1 and AppleTV to HDMI 2, so you would have to switch inputs to watch on-air television.  Apple TV like recent competitor, Boxee, are not TVs, but rather additional hardware called OTT (over the top) boxes.  Boxee can only access web pages that are built for its platform.  Also Hulu has blocked them, and they cannot access iTunes store, so content is rather limited akin to Roku and MSN TV systems.

Apple actually tried, and failed, earlier in the year to talk to studios to see if they would allow users to subscribe to live streams of network programming through iTunes.  Apple had a taste of their own medicine when the networks said "no way" because its system is closed (sound familiar?), and as it has yet to make a dent in market-share, it has zero leverage.  Moreover, it is highly unlikely influential network TV sponsors would welcome the new product with its commercial-free day-old shows which block out market reach to an affluent consumer group.  Good related blog post

Google TV: 90% Search? 

Google TV not a TV, but rather is a widget platform like Yahoo! TV for your TV.  People can build  applications for a "connected TV," which cost 25% more than normal TVs. Similar to Apple TV, users can access content from popular sources like Netflix, Hulu, and YouTube.  Unlike Apple TV, Google TV is Flash compatible. Google TV lets you do one main thing: You can type in a search query and it will look through your program guide for live TV and online at certain video sites to find exactly what you want.  However, people need to buy a new keyboard and mouse setup to do this.  While humans surf the web through our Google search toolbar, we channel surf with a remote. Below: Vague cartoon video introducing the world to Google TV, released May 18:


Verdict: Fear The Underdog.
While Apple TV eliminates the effort it takes to connect your computer to your TV with a cord, pop a disc into a dvd player, or dock an ipod into speakers, without complete on-air television it simply fails as a TV.  Apple's mantra has been: "Make it and they will come."  This simply cannot fly in this market if they do not deliver on what the benefits of a TV actually are.  At this point, with Google TV, users cannot channel surf with the ease of a remote.

The victor will provide a service that fully integrates the benefits of the Internet with your TV for a better, TV-like user experience.  ViaClix, a Los Gatos based start-up founded by the woman who invented the two-tone demodulator (rad), by working with distributors like Comcast, integrates live TV and web content, enabling users to navigate between the two without having to type in urls all through one remote.  Knowing Google, they will eventually figure this out, whether it requires adapting product, partnering with, or buying out such competitors.

Reflections
And as Apple is improving its gadgets, Google is working on its cloud operating system, and both are releasing new 'TVs,' Facebook is probably working with Microsoft on an email system to rival Yahoo! and Gmail.  The battle strategies of today's tech giants remind me of war plays between European nations in the sixteenth through eighteenth century (maybe I just think it's funny to compare Apple to France). 

Google's willingness to partner with anyone (even known enemies) against other competitors and Facebook's ability to both shape and adapt to the demands of the social sphere are why they will be on top for a long time.  Apple can't simply rely on its sexy UI to stay on top, it must be flexible with the changing marketplace, better cater to the proletariat, and cultivate strategic alliances with both the little guys and the major players.  Or else, the iTunes store will go down in history like the Bastille.

Dealing PHP

Good engineers are worth their weight in heroin, only harder to find on the street. Start-ups six months ago were commonly giving away Apple products in exchange for a software engineer, and have now are offering large cash rewards for referrals.

My big sister's friend, founder of Doostang, has a new project called PulseJFK.  He's looking for a "shit hot" front end engineer and willing to drop some serious dinero. Last week he texts me about it.

"Yo, want $1000? Find me a shit hot front end engineer for pulsejfk."

Two days later: "we need a front end. Ill give u 2k."

He's willing to do whatever it takes. Front-end or back-end, entrepreneurs and CEOs are bending over and willing to pay whoever will give them the goods.

In the mean time, Box.net, an online file sharing company, is trying to keep up with its rapid growth. They are willing to shell out $2,000 in cash, or Subway sandwiches, to the person who delivers them an engineer.  My software engineer friend Tomas, who posted this offer on Facebook, spends late nights building the Box when he's not playing Rock Band and probably could use some scaling reinforcements.  Don't bother poaching him, he'd never break up the band.

Back in January, the CEO of Thread.com offered a new iPad to the person who hooked him up with a gnarly software engineer.  Meebo, which allows users to master their IM universe from a single point of command, now is offering $5,000 for an engineer captured alive!  Soon, even large sums of cash won't be enough, you'll probably have to offer a kidney, or perhaps your first born child.   

Other Points of Interest

DARPA Network Challenge:

Social Network Used to Find 10 Red Balloons (MIT won $40,000 cash prize)

Existentialist moment:

Watch this (complete version available on Itunes): Stephen Hawking- "The Story of Everything"

Cool beats throughout time

Germany, 1980.  Deadmau5 was still in the womb.

Party like it's 1999. It's all about the orange jackets.

Miami, Ultra Fest 2010. My best friend went and submitted this.

San Francisco, May 22, 2010. Want tickets, but will be in NYC at the TC Disrupt conference, having lunch at the NYT cafeteria, and most importantly visiting Grandma and Grandpa Valmis and big sis!

PS: Where did groups go on Facebook?

Robot Uprising

Cooler Than a Ninja Turtle
It's sexy to look like Jesus, if you're an engineer, that is.  My Berkeley friend was telling me about this guy. Apparently he can build ANYTHING. Perhaps my favorite part is the Misc section of his website, specifically under "Random notes" where he writes "To build and install the opengl version of geda/pcb (which is awesome)..." and then reveals the code. I can't say that I know what the opengl version of geda/pcb is, but I know that it's got to be awesome!

Morgan Quigley (above), Stanford PhD in Artificial Intelligence, collaborates with Willow Garage, a Silicon Valley robot factory.  ROS is Willow Garage's software platform (which stands for both Robotics Operating System and Robotics Open Source), based on a system built by Quigley.  Every Linux software distribution throughout time has had a name consisting of two words.  Willow Garage's ROS distribution version is called the "Box Turtle" because if you work on your computer just to test the basics, you write code for a turtle running around a box.

Willow Garage is basically a charity for robots, as it's primarily funded by it's founder, Scott Hassan, one of Google's earliest lead architects. Some philanthropists save starving children and empower women, some rescue cats, some build robots to help save lives...and fold towels.  Willow Garage picks 10 universities and research centers to lease their robots for two years, under the condition that they do cool stuff with it.  On May 4, 11 recipients of PR-2 Beta robot were revealed out of 78 applicants.  Berkeley, one of the winners, received recent media buzz after dropping the YouTube video of the PR-2 prototype folding "previously-unseen" towels. The PR-2 Beta is more polished than the prototype, but functionally about the same.

According to one of the 11 ten PR-2 Beta robot recipients: "If you download the towel folding app, it will fold your towels. If you download the ironing app, it will iron your shirts. If you download the cooking app, it will cook for you. None of the apps are available yet; but that's the future."  The PR-2 Beta is designed primarily to perform various household tasks and retrieve objects.  MIT plans to have their robot follow human orders without any back-talk.

Repairing Humans and Feeding Them
Beyond laundry, scientists are building micro-robots that travel through your bloodstream to deliver drugs exactly where you need them.  Significant progress in machine learning has occurred in recent years.  Computer algorithms are able to identify objects with much precision.  The applications for image recognition are endless-- If a sock is inside out, if a scalpel is about to hit a blood vessel, if your car is about to hit a bicyclist in the street (these examples are all new, actual advancements in artificial intelligence).

Researchers in the field are largely operating in uncharted territory.  Some of the challenge isn't if they can make it, it's if they can dream it.  Most members of the general public, however, when directly questioned what they'd like robots to do, reportedly said they simply want a robot that will make them a sandwich.  I shit you not.

Fierce Military Technology Slash Cool Toy
Some of the same scientists who brought us the towel-folding robot also worked on the autonomous robot helicopter. The robot actually learned by observing experienced copter pilot, Garett Oku, fly the 4-foot model device via remote control. Advances in object recognition coupled with such advances in autonomous flight could potentially save the lives of military men and women.

Another application for this drone technology is one hella sick toy. Check out what the engineers at Parrot have rolled out.



Battle Dance: Do the Robot
While there are people actually working on sex robots, I'm referring to the dance move. My best friend Bunz, Duke Law '10, and I are newly inspired and determined to learn how to tectonic dance.

Cool Robot Infographic
Who would I be if I left you without one?

The Future is Now

A Case Study on the New York Times as it embraces Web 2.0 technology

CEOs everywhere are faking it. The median age of a CEO is 52. Most are number smart, business savvy visionaries, but their kids probably know more than they do about the Internet. Corporate officers are attempting to use the correct lingo to convince investors they are taking adequate measures to stay relevant in the Web 2.0 era. They have turned to the nerd community for answers.

Many top companies initially ignored Facebook, passing it off as some fad. Now they are scrambling to effectively harness its potential. Take the New York Times. In early 2009, there was an internal push to integrate Facebook with TimesPeople, its lackluster online community which enables users to follow what other readers are recommending and commenting on. The bosses scrapped the idea - considered too low-brow at the time. 

Now The Times' SVP of Digital Operations delivered a keynote address at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, heralding the wonders of social media. Even the number one newspaper in the world knows it cannot afford to hang on to the coattails of a reputation built over one hundred years.

During his speech, Martin Nisenholtz took the opportunity to discuss his aspirations for nytimes.com. He stated: "We’re beginning to experiment with badging, by including user photos and other identity-based design cues."

Tell me if I am wrong, but that is not badging, basing this more on my experience in the Girl Scouts than my budding tech savvy. Badging, if its even a verb now, is when someone is awarded a specific badge icon for performing a certain action or earning a certain amount of points. For instance, FourSquare users can receive the Mayor badge for checking into a certain location more than anyone else and even unlock the Douchebag badge if they frequent trendy locations. 

He also used the term "adaptive routing," which he explains "picks the best people in a given network and forwards just the right questions for them to answer." Aardvark, which was acquired by Google in February, attempts to do exactly that by tapping into your social network. The Times believes the quality of answers and conversation from its readers will be superior, and the secret of this is real identity (which Facebook Connect enables). *TimesPeople Suggestions*

Fact: Full page print ads in the Times go for $250,000. However, online ads are sold for as little as $5 a pop. The stuff that is printed on trees is paying everyone's salaries. While newspapers continue to rely on revenue from print ads, they are hoping to expand revenue streams for digital content.

New York Times Digital is in the process of building up a restaurant review section, part of their masterplan to create a high-caliber, reputable city guide. New York City's Subway CEO recently fed NYT web developers tacos, expressing their desire to integrate an app into the online newspaper. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), in fact, is looking for anyone to build them an app that could get more people to ride the subway. If there was a show or restaurant review in the New York Times, the reader could ideally identify the best subway route to get them there.

As every successful conversion is $2 more in their pockets and tomorrow's financial forecast unknown, free tacos seems like a reasonable gamble.

In the mean time, entrepreneurs are building products that bring print media to the digital space. Japan has already integrated 2D bar codes into its print media, which can be scanned by mobile devices and can redirect users to a certain website. QR (quick response) code readers are available for free in the Apps store for all mobile devices. In the future, a person reading a play review could scan the QR code embedded next to the article with their mobile device, be directed to a ticket website, determine the best public transportation route to get there, or share the information on Facebook.

Though it is important to facilitate consumer conversions, businesses must also seek to engage users on the digital forum to keep them coming back for more.  Fortune 100 companies are desperate to figure out how to use social media to keep a leading edge and should look outside for answers.  The Huffington Post has recently integrated gaming dynamics into its online community to engage readers, with avatars, points, and badges. Software companies like Bunchball are able to transform such websites into dynamic user experiences.

The business savvy CEO must reach out to the tech geeks to keep in pace with Gen Y.  Today's companies need nimble digital product managers who can take a vision and best translate it to the engineers on how to execute it. Companies ideally want someone who can do it all (drive product, build the database, improve UI), but these superhumans are rare. The CEO of the future may not know how to make a website or app themselves, but he or she should be familiar with the technology, or at least know who is.

NYT could better follow the live music scene (noting their Arts section largely focuses on Broadway and symphonies, with an occasional shout-out to Jay-Z.)